A few days ago Auckland Transport posted their public transport patronage report for May.
This included, as is their new habit, a section on the numbers recorded by their automatic cycle counters. You can see the results by month in the graph above.
Overall, the report shows the same positive trend as the April and January reports.
There was an overall increase of 5.6% in total cycle movements between May, 2011 and May, 2012. This is a bit less than we have seen in previous months but it is still in the right direction (i.e., up).
More excitingly, there has been a 16.5% increase in cycle movements in the morning peak. This continues the ongoing trend of cycle movements in the morning peak tending to increase faster (on average) than cycle movements overall.
If this is a sign that more people are beginning to cycle to work (faster than people are taking up recreational cycling) this is great news. Overall, it’s probably too soon to say that for sure.
In either case, it is great to see Auckland Transport producing these regular monthly reports.
Fantastic to see we are still getting increases despite the fact May is effectively late autumn/ early winter. Could Auckland really have turned the corner and be on its way to international cycling normality? Do we have sufficient evidence to confirm a modestly sized cycling snowball has formed at the top of the hill? As you say it may be to soon to be sure but I am inclined to think that all the hard work put in by CAA and the like is beginning to have the effect its meant to. Looking forward to the monthly reports confirming this.
I hope so! Think it’s only natural that more people would give cycling a go in summer than winter. So wouldn’t be surprised if we see smaller increases all through the winter months.
Looking at the positive, it really seems that there are more people about on bikes. I mentioned to a mechanic at the LBS and he agreed. Some of your previous (excellent) posts have stated that the numbers aren’t that big compared to other modes, but it pays to just dwell on the improvements we are seeing on their own. It’s great, there’s more people riding, and that’s all that matters, let’s get out there people!
I agree there are issues with year on year months being wetter or drier/warmer (you can get rain days per month from NIWA and compare if you’d wanted), but agree that is the most likely comparison to make. I.e. Compare each month to the same month the 2 years before that, then adjust for variances in the amount of weekdays, and rain days?
Keep up the interesting posts Lucy, yours provide the info I find interesting.
thanks James! lovely to hear that positive feedback. You are right that we must focus on the positive – which is that cycling numbers are increasing. I’m afraid I’ve actually just put up a post saying I won’t be around again until October. But never fear, I’m sure there will soon be many other bloggers joining the team.
I am not so convinced that these numbers presented here tell the full story. While the article below is based on an Australian study, there are similar parallels that can be drawn with NZ. The basic premise is that increases in the number of cyclists have not matched the rise in population. And therefore, no real increase in cycling can be observed. If this is accurate, it would suggest that Auckland is not on the verge of a cycling boom…we are not at the tipping point, so to speak. So while it is nice to be positive, such positivity can be misleading and undermine any progress. Cycling rates as a mode share % would be a better guage.
The article even gives 3 possible explanations why cycling rates are so low….
1. The historical prioritization of the motor vehicle in urban planning.
2. The lack of investment in cycling infrastructure.
3. The mandatory helmet legislation.
The article makes some interesting observations about NZ’s mandatory helmet law.
“This had the unfortunate side effect of reducing the number of Australians cycling by about 30-40%, and even more in New Zealand. Helmet legislation continues to be a barrier to cycling participation, with 23% of Sydney adults reporting they would cycle more if they didn’t have to wear a helmet.”
http://theconversation.edu.au/australian-cycling-boom-nope-its-a-myth-8020
hi Mark. that report you cited is comparing 1986 to 2011. I don’t think anybody would argue with you that there was a MASSIVE drop in cycling numbers in NZ over that same time period. I’ve actually presented data myself relating to children’s cycling to show how abrupt the drop in cycling rates in the 1980s was in NZ. http://cyclingauckland.co.nz/general/2012/05/just-three-decades-to-decimate-youth-cycle-rates/
On the other hand, I don’t think it’s all doom and gloom. Just because absolute cycling numbers and cycling mode share have dropped since the 1980s, doesn’t mean that there hasn’t been a moderate increase over the last 5 years.
The annual cycle counts suggest that cycling numbers have increased by 30% since 2007. http://www.aucklandtransport.govt.nz/about-us/publications/PlansProgrammes/Documents/AT%20-%20Regional%20Cycle%20Monitoring%20-%20Regional%20Summary%20-%20FINAL.pdf
Auckland’s population has not grown 30% since 2007 – more like 10% from 1.337 million in 2006 to 1.5 million in 2012. Nor has the amount we are traveling. In fact, vehicle kilometres traveled by car plateaued in about 2008. http://transportblog.co.nz/2012/03/29/unprecedented-change-kiwis-driving-less-and-loving-it/
I’ve also blogged quite a few times about what data we do have about mode share, which mainly comes from the Household Travel Survey. http://cyclingauckland.co.nz/general/2012/05/the-most-boring-graph-in-the-world/
These show exactly what you said, that cycling mode share in Auckland is less than 1%. Their figures also suggest that cycling mode share has made a small but positive increase over the last 5 years. Cycling has gone from having just about 0.25% of mode share in 2003/04 to around 0.85% in 2010/11. Obviously, that’s not high enough and we all want it to increase. But it is an improvement.
I think I’ve said many times on this blog that we can’t see either the manual count or the automatic counts as presenting a total picture of how many people are cycling in Auckland. They also can’t tell us anything about mode share. But what they can do is suggest what the trend is. Right now that trend seems to be positive so why not be pleased about that?