There is an interesting post over at Bicycle Canberra, entitled Getting Ready for Battle. It is obvious that Canberra and Auckland are ‘cut from the same cloth’. A diagramme from the post caught my eye and I have taken the liberty of reproducing here:
I am not sure where this diagramme has come from but it seems very optimistic to me. I would be very surprised if we had this many people sitting in the green and red areas – I am presuming here that the people in the ‘enthused and optimistic’ section are actually riding their bicycles and are not just being optimistic from their armchairs!
I have put myself in the ‘enthused and optimistic’ pile as I can’t say that I identify with ‘strong and fearless’. Perhaps we could have a new section for me and others like me (if there are any!) … how about … ‘determined but careful’?
I'm dazed and confused.
@Antoine, that is probably just due to all those car fumes you breathe in everyday while riding your bike. Although that can't be right because according to this, http://cyclingauckland.co.nz/front/2011/04/cyclists-face-least-exposure-to-traffic-fumes-its-official/ you are no better off inside your car.
The first time I saw this diagram was in the Portland Bike Plan to 2030 (I think they came up with it); see http://www.portlandonline.com/transportation/index.cfm?a=158497&c=44671
The numbers make sense for Portland (with ~7-8% bike commuters) and lined up with what I see in Christchurch:
– Strong and fearless: ~1% riding even if you provided absolutely nothing for cycling (which until recently was pretty close to Auckland in general…)
– Enthused and confident: 7% if you provide something; typically on-road bike lanes
– Interested but concerned: ~60% would be tempted by high quality separated facilities
– No way no how: about 1/3 left
Remember too that having (say) 2% of commuter trips made by bike doesn't mean that only 2% of the population ever cycle. E.g. from a 2005 random household survey in Christchurch, although the typical commuter modeshare is ~7% by bike, over 30% of adult residents said that they had cycled in the past month. So there are probably a lot of those "enthused and confident"s and "interested but concerned"s already dipping their toes into the cycling game when it suits them.
When Cycle Action got the Bike Futures workshop here to Auckland some months back, this diagram formed one of the core elements of the BikeVictoria guy's presentation. It is a very useful way of reminding advocates and especially Council staff (of which a lot attended, thankfully!) who their real "market" for cycling is.
I'm 'determined but careful' too!
@Glen K – that's a really good point.